KARNATAKA’S WARNING SIGNAL: GOVERN OR PREPARE TO GO

 The results of the recent by-elections to local self-government institutions in Karnataka are not routine electoral statistics to be explained away. They are political signals—clear, unambiguous, and urgent. The defeats suffered by the ruling Congress in coastal Karnataka, notably in the pattana panchayats of Bajpe, Kinnigoli and Manki, and the similar pattern elsewhere in the state, point to a deeper malaise. Voters are not merely registering dissatisfaction; they are issuing a warning. The cadre-based BJP is seeing this and waiting in the wings to leverage the outcome of the bypolls.

Local body elections, especially in semi-urban and urbanising regions, reflect ground-level governance realities more accurately than grand Assembly contests. In this sense, the verdict is troubling for the Siddaramaiah government. The Congress has lost not because the opposition BJP has reinvented itself, but because the ruling party has failed to convince people that it is governing effectively.

Factionalism within the Congress—between the Chief Minister’s camp and that of the Deputy Chief Minister—has visibly weakened the administration. A government perceived to be consumed by internal power equations cannot inspire public confidence. Added to this is the growing perception that the government is more invested in slogans and political messaging than in day-to-day administration.

The much-publicised guarantee schemes, projected as instruments of social justice, have not rescued the government from voter anger. On the contrary, they appear to have contributed to fiscal stress, leaving little room for routine governance. Delays in salary payments to government staff, deteriorating roads, overstretched hospitals, neglected state-run educational institutions, and administrative dependence on contract workers instead of accountable permanent staff have all combined to create a sense of drift.

Voters are sending a clear message: welfare promises cannot substitute governance. People are willing to support targeted assistance, but not at the cost of a dysfunctional state. The argument that guarantees alone can sustain political legitimacy is proving to be deeply flawed.

Ironically, it was BJP’s misadventures and maladministration that brought the Congress back to power in Karnataka. Today, the Congress risks being undone by the same failures—arrogance, complacency, and an inability to course-correct. The memory of the Bommai government ensures that BJP is not automatically seen as a better alternative. But that does not translate into a free pass for the present regime.

Multiple surveys, including recent C-voter ones, had already flagged declining public confidence in the government. Those warnings appear to have been ignored. The by-election results suggest that people’s patience is wearing thin.

The choice before the Siddaramaiah government is stark. It must rein in factionalism, reassess fiscally ruinous feebie policies, and redirect resources towards basic governance. If it does not, these local body results may soon be replicated on a much larger scale. The warning has been delivered. What follows will depend entirely on whether the government chooses to listen and act diligently.